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Retention or Attrition Models

University of Toronto

Ingram Olkin

Stanford University

A model for retention and its counterpart, attrition, is presented. In a prototype example, students enter a program in each of k terms; some of the students complete the program, and the remainder leave. A key feature in the models proposed is that there is a dampening effect from term to term because the probability of leaving the program diminishes as the terms progress. The focus of this paper is the study of alternative models for the dampening in attrition rates. A number of alternative dampening effects are proposed that provide for different rates of attrition. Approximate maximum likelihood estimates for the underlying parameters in each model and a Bayesian analysis are provided.

Key Words: Lexis model • independent binomial distributions • maximum likelihood estimates for proportions

Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1-20 (1989)
DOI: 10.3102/10769986014001001


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